We provide a general framework for estimating persistence in populations which may be affected by catastrophic events, and which are either unbounded or have very large ceilings. We model the population using a birth-death process modified to allow for downward jumps of arbitrary size. For such processes, it is typically necessary to truncate the process in order to make the evaluation of expected extinction times (and higher-order moments) computationally feasible. Hence, we give particular attention to the selection of a cut-off point at which to truncate the process, and we present a simple method for obtaining quantitative indicators of the suitability of a chosen cut-off.

Original publication

DOI

10.1016/j.tpb.2005.02.002

Type

Journal article

Journal

Theor Popul Biol

Publication Date

08/2005

Volume

68

Pages

77 - 90

Keywords

Birth Rate, Disasters, Insurance, Major Medical, Markov Chains, Models, Statistical, Models, Theoretical, Mortality, Population Dynamics